Formal Demography at IUSSP 2021

Here is a list of formal demography presentations at the IUSSP International Population Conference, to be held 5-10 December. Papers are organized chronologically within broad themes.

If you or someone you know is presenting formal demography work and it is not included on the list below, please fill out this form.

Note: Submissions received after 4 December may not be added to this webpage in time for your presentation!!

Check out presentations in the following categories:

• Economic Demography
• Fertility, Family Planning, and Reproductive Health
• Migration
• Mortality and Health
• Population Projection and Reconstruction
• Urban Demography

Economic Demography

Monday, December 6

• ‘Female Labour Force Participation in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cohort Analysis’, Andreas Backhaus & Elke Loichinger. Session 28 (14:00-15:30 UTC).
• ‘Unequal Duties and Unequal Retirement: Decomposing the Women’s Labor Force Decline in Post-reform China’, Kai Feng. Session 28 (14:00-15:30 UTC).
• ‘The Motherhood Penalty in the Brazilian Labor Market: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis’, Iracy Pimenta, Simone Wajnman, & Gilvan R. Guedes. Session 28 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

Tuesday, December 7

• ‘Global Population Change & Economic Convergence of World Countries: Meaning and Implications for Global Inequality’, Parfait Eloundou-Enyegue, Sarah Giroux, Mila Cantar, Shoshanna Hoover, Kristie Lebeau, Kimberly Pollock, Clara Rice, & Michael Zhang. Session 88 (22:00-23:30).

Thursday, December 8

• ‘Population Aging and Retirement Age Policy: Period Balances, Generational Imbalances’, Fernando Fernandes, Cassio M. Turra, & Eduardo L. G. Rios-Neto. Session 172 (18:00-19:30 UTC).
• ‘Savings and the Demographic Dividend: Evidence from a Macrosimulation Model’, Joshua K. Wilde & Mahesh Karra. Session 143 (08:00-09:30 UTC).

Friday, December 9

• ‘Labour Force Projections in India until 2060 and Implications for the Demographic Dividend’, Guillaume Marois, Ekaterina Zhelenkova, & Balhasan Ali. Session 189 (12:00-13:30 UTC).
• ‘Poverty, Education and Human Capital in India: The Age Education Structure’, Sayeed Unisa, Tejal Lakhan, & Neethu Naik. Session 189 (12:00-13:30 UTC).

Fertility, Family Planning, and Reproductive Health

Monday, December 6

• ‘Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the Central African Republic: A Demographic Perspective’, José Antonio Ortega. Session 8 (08:00-09:30 UTC).
• ‘Improving Methodology for Fertility Forecasting through the Incorporation of Individual-Level Data and Population-Level Parity Information’, Joanne Ellison, Ann M. Berrington, Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J. Forster, & Jakub Bijak. Session 39 (18:00-19:30 UTC).
• ‘China’s Low Fertility May Not Hinder Future Prosperity’, Guillaume Marois, Stuart Gietel-Basten, & Wolfgang Lutz. Session 9 (08:00-09:30 UTC).
• ‘Imputation of Full Birth Histories from Census Data: A Rediscovered Method for the Detailed Analysis of Fertility’, Ian Timeaus. Session 39 (18:00-19:30 UTC).

Tuesday, December 7

• ‘Bayesian Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for Improvements in Education and Family Planning’, Daphne Liu & Adrian Raftery. Session 88 (22:00-23:30).

• ‘Is NRR Time-Sensitive in Measuring Population Replacement Level?’, Arni Rao. Session 83 (18:00-19:30 UTC).

• ‘Future Levels of Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: Parity-Based Projections’, Thomas Spoorenberg & Mathias Lerch. Session 88 (22:00-23:30).

Wednesday, December 8

• ‘Age Patterns of Contraceptive Use and Needs: A Global Comparison’, Vladimira Kantorova, Mark Wheldon, Philipp Ueffing, & Aisha Dasgupta. Session 117 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

• ‘Global Changes in Contraceptive Method MIX and Outlook to 2030’, Philipp Ueffing, Vladimira Kantorova, Mark Wheldon, Joseph Molitoris, & Aisha Dasgupta. Session 117 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

• ‘Country-Level Patterns in Unintended Pregnancy and Abortion 2015–2019: A Description of Country-Specific Estimates from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model’, Jonathan Bearak, Anna Popinchalk, Cynthia Beavin, Bela Ganatra, Ann-Beth Moller, Özge Tunçalp, & Leontine Alkema. Session 128 (18:00-19:30 UTC).

Thursday, December 9

• ‘Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rate in India and Its 15 Major States, 1950-2100’, Ankita Srivastava & Nandita Saikia. Session 138 (04:00-05:30 UTC).

• ‘Fertility in Italian Regions: Analysis and Estimation of Cohort Indicators’, Sara Miccoli. Session 144 (08:00-09:30 UTC).

• ‘Approaches to Study Parity Progression of Fertility with illustrative application to India’s National Family Health Survey’, Padum Narayan & Arvind Pandey. Session 147 (10:00-11:30 UTC).

Friday, December 10

• ‘Fertility Transition in Ethiopia: A Study Using Reproductive Outcome Measures of Bongaarts and Casterline’, Mezgebo Gebretsadikan & Krishna Ponnapalli. Session 179 (06:00-07:30 UTC)

• ‘Low Fertility in Tehran: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach’, Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Nasibeh Esmaeili, Hajiieh Bibi Razeghi Nasrabad, & Fatemeh Torabi. Session 179 (06:00-07:30 UTC)

• ‘Scenario-Based Fertility Projections Incorporating Impacts of COVID-19’, Ann M. Berrington, Joanne Ellison, Bernice Kuang, Sindhu Vasireddy,& Hill Kulu. Session 179 (06:00-07:30 UTC)

• ‘Estimating Contraceptive Needs in the Postpartum Period: A Population-Level Comparison of Five Measures of Unmet Need and Demand for Contraception among Women in Ethiopia’, Celia Karp, Sophia Magalona, Solomon Shiferaw, Assefa Seme, & Linnea Zimmerman. Session 196 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

Migration

Monday, December 6

• ‘Modeling and Forecasting Bilateral Migration Flows for All Countries’, Nathan Welch & Adrian Raftery. Session 34 (16:00-17:30 UTC).
• ‘Estimates of Migration Flows and Recent Immigration Stocks in Latin America. How Much Are They Alike?’, Julieta Bengochea, Emanuele Del Fava, Victoria Prieto Rosas, & Emilio Zagheni. Session 34 (16:00-17:30 UTC).
• ‘Assessing the Demographic Impact of Migration on the Working Age Population in European Regions’, Daniela Ghio, Anne Goujon, & Fabrizio Natale. Session 9 (08:00-09:30 UTC).

Tuesday, December 7

• ‘Gender and Educational Differences in Internal Migration’, Guy J. Abel, Aude Bernard, & Raya Muttarak. Session 45 (04:00-05:30 UTC).

• ‘Cross National Comparisons of the Drivers of Rural-Urban Migration Based on Millions of Individual Census Records’, Ziyue Huang. Session 45 (04:00-05:30 UTC).

• ‘Marriage Migration in India: The Enlargement of Marriage Markets in the Era of Declining Sex Ratios’, Enu Anand. Session 45 (04:00-05:30 UTC).

• ‘How Can Migration, Workforce Participation, and Education Balance the Cost of Aging in Europe?’, Guillaume Marois, Alain Bélanger, & Wolfgang Lutz. Session 51 (08:00-09:30 UTC).

• ‘Would Sustained Immigration Prevent Long-Run Population Decrease in European Countries?’, Nick Parr. Session 51 (08:00-09:30 UTC).

• ‘Age- And Sex-Specific Estimates of Migration Flows in Asia-Pacific’, Tianyu Shen, James Raymer, & Qing Guan. Session 88 (22:00-23:30).

• ‘Integrating Expert Opinions and Data to Estimate and Forecast International Migration’, Arkadiusz Wisniowski. Session 88 (22:00-23:30).

Wednesday, December 8

• ‘Estimating Migration Flows between Europe and Regions of the World’, Georgios Aristotelous, Session 111 (12:00-13:30 UTC).
• ‘Analysing the Uncertainty of Migration Scenarios through Macroeconomic Models’, Emily Barker, Session 111 (12:00-13:30 UTC).
• ‘Internal Migration and Life Course Transitions in Brazil’, Reinaldo Santos, Alisson F. Barbieri, & Ernesto Amaral. Session 111 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

Thursday, December 9

• ‘Bayesian Estimation and Projections of Internal Migration Flows in Italy’, Emanuela Furfaro, Federico Castelletti, & Adrian Raftery. Session 170 (16:00-1730 UTC).
• ‘Novel Approaches Based on Sequences Analysis and Graphs for Grasping Complexity of Migrations’, Francois Mialhe, Florence De Longueville, Samuel Bonnand, & Sabine J. F. Henry. Session 170 (16:00-1730 UTC).
• ‘The Mobility Transition in Asia between 1970-2011’, Wanli Nie, Ashira Menashe-Oren, & Philippe Bocquier. Session 170 (16:00-1730 UTC).
• ‘Practical Geospatial and Sociodemographic Predictors of Human Mobility’, Corrine Ruktanonchai, Shengjie Lai, Chigozie E Utazi, Adam Sadilek, Andrew J. Tatem, & Alessandro Sorichetta. Session 170 (16:00-1730 UTC).

Friday, December 10

• ‘Where Are the Spaniards Moving after the Outbreak of the COVID-19 Pandemic?’, Miguel González-Leonardo & Antonio Lopez-Gay. Session 180 (08:00-09:30 UTC).

Mortality and Health

Monday, December 6

• ‘When Do Parents Bury a Child? Uncertainty of Offspring Loss across the Demographic Transition’, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Ugofilippo Basellini, & Emilio Zagheni. Session 26 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

Tuesday, December 7

• ‘Estimating and Forecasting Age-Specific Maternal Mortality Rates in Brazil’, Bernardo L. Queiroz, Marcia C. Castro, & Ricardo Pedroso. Session 80 (16:00-17:30 UTC).
• ‘Entangling the Economic Impact of Disease on Households in India’, Srikanth Reddy Umenthala. Poster Session 7 (11:00-12:30 UTC).

Wednesday, December 8

• ‘Modelling Weekly Mortality Incorporating Annual Trends’, Joanne Ellison, Jason Hilton, Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J. Forster, Peter W. F. Smith, & Jakub Bijak. Session 118 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

• ‘Regional Mortality Inequalities in the Netherlands and the Role of Internal Migration’, Adrien Remund, Fanny Janssen, & Ernst van der Hoeven. Session 119 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

Thursday, December 9

• ‘Cause of Death Reduce Life Table’, Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Jose Manuel Aburto, & Marius Pascariu. Session 135 (2:00-03:30 UTC).

• ‘The Sensitivity of the Healthy Life Years Indicator: Approaches for Dealing with Age-Specific Prevalence Data’, Vanessa di Lego & Markus Sauerberg. Session 135 (2:00-03:30 UTC).

• ‘Application of Network Analysis to Multiple Causes of Death Data in Japan’ Futoshi Ishii, Reiko Hayashi, Emiko Shinohara, & Motomi Beppu. Session 135 (2:00-03:30 UTC).

• ‘Indirect Estimation of Life Expectancy by Ethnicity in Chile’, Moisés Sandoval & Marcela Alvear. Session 135 (2:00-03:30 UTC).

• ‘Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy’, Hana Sevcikova & Adrian Raftery. Session 135 (2:00-03:30 UTC).

• ‘Trends and Pattern in Excess Female Under-5 Mortality in India’, Vandana Tamrakar & Nandita Saikia. Session 146 (08:00-09:30 UTC).

• ‘Lifesaving and a New Ticket to Life: A Reappraisal of the Resuscitation Approach’, Vanessa di Lego. Session 166 (16:00-17:30 UTC).

Friday, December 10

• ‘Low-Cost Sibling Methods for Measuring Adult Mortality’, Bruno Masquelier, Ashira Menashe-Oren, Georges Reniers, & Ian M. Timaeus. Session 183 (18:00-09:30 UTC).

• ‘Cosmopolitan Cities or the “Great White North”? A Small-Scale Hierarchical Cluster Analysis of 4,689 Canadian Census Subdivisions’, Leora Courtney-Wolfman. Session 197 (14:00-15:30 UTC).

Population Projection and Reconstruction

Tuesday, December 7

• ‘POPP Project for the Optical Character Recognition of Parisian Population Censuses’, Sandra Brée, Thierry Paquet, François Merveille, Thomas Constum, Nicolas Kempf, & Pierrick Traounez. Session 80 (16:00-17:30 UTC).

• ‘Forecasting Vital Rates from Demographic Summary Measures’, Carlo Giovanni G. Camarda & Jose Manuel Aburto. Session 80 (16:00-17:30 UTC).

Urban Demography

Monday, December 6

• ‘The End of Urban Sprawl? A Swiss Assessment from 1966 to 2018’, Mathias Lerch. Session 38 (18:00-19:30 UTC).
• ‘Toward a Global Urbanization Analysis for Subnational Territories by Exploring Remote Sensing-Based Products’, Hamidreza Zoraghein & Leiwen Jiang. Session 38 (18:00-19:30 UTC).

Tuesday, December 7

• ‘Measuring the Concentration of Urban Population in the Negative Exponential Model Using the Lorenz Curve, Gini Coefficient, Hoover Dissimilarity Index, and Relative Entropy’, Joel Cohen. Session 83 (18:00-1930 UTC).

Thursday, December 9

• ‘Dynamics of Fertility and Family Planning among the Urban Poor in India: Findings from NFHS 2, 3 and 4’, Siddharth Agarwal & S Kaushik. Session 158 (14:00-15:30 UTC).